Wisconsin primary elections could be key indicators of what’s to come

Welcome to primary election week — what is, perhaps unbelievably, only the appetizer for an election cycle meal that has just 85 days left.

While Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascendency as the Democratic standard bearer — and her subsequent running mate announcement — has dominated the news over the past three weeks, Wisconsin voters will weigh in Tuesday on just about everything but the presidential race.

Primaries for the state Legislature, county clerks and district attorneys, a pair of constitutional amendments and much more will be on Tuesday’s ballot. If you find yourself reading this and looking for more information about what you’ll be weighing in on Tuesday, Wisconsin Watch has you covered. Check out our 2024 primary voter guide.

In the meantime, here are three trends we’re keeping tabs on Tuesday.

Will ‘vote no’ succeed?

After a pair of constitutional amendments related to election administration sailed to approval in April with little notable opposition, Democrats and their allies, who opposed those changes, have mobilized a much more robust campaign against a pair of GOP-authored constitutional changes on Tuesday’s ballot.

The two amendments would remove the governor from spending decisions on federal funds. Under current law, the governor has authority in certain instances to accept and expend federal funds without participation of the Legislature. Under the amendments, the governor could not allocate federal funds without such approval. The Legislature would approve such allocations through joint resolutions or legislative rules that, unlike state statutes, do not require the governor’s approval.

Gov. Tony Evers, who has campaigned at several events in opposition to the amendments, said the changes would hamper the state’s emergency response capabilities, pointing to his use of federal funds provided to the state during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The goal of these amendments are plain and simple: Republicans in the Legislature want to take more power for themselves and erode the balances that exist at this time,” Evers said at an event in Madison, adding that if the changes pass, “me and any other future governor will be left without the tools they need — especially during times of crisis.”

Three groups opposing the amendments have raised more than $3.5 million, according to a tally from WisPolitics.com. One of those groups, Protect Wisconsin’s Constitution-Vote No, is running an ad that claims the amendments are a “power grab to give the MAGA politicians in the Legislature the sole power to distribute emergency funding.”

The conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty, which is supporting the amendments, is arguing the changes “will prevent the executive branch from unilaterally spending federal dollars towards their preferred projects and provide a necessary check on their power from the state legislature.”

We’re watching to see if Democrats’ mobilization effort will be enough to get voters to reject the amendments — which pass about 75% of the time. It’s an early test of the Democratic ground game in what will be a hotly contested state come November’s presidential election.

How many incumbents will be cast aside?

The state’s new legislative boundaries resulted in some 15 incumbent pairings (when two current lawmakers are drawn into the same district). While many lawmakers opted to retire or move into new districts to avoid facing one of their current colleagues, we have four instances where incumbents are running against incumbents on Tuesday. 

In Assembly District 24, incumbent Rep. Janel Brandtjen, R-Menomonee Falls, faces a challenge from state Sen. Dan Knodl, R-Germantown. This race is a rematch of a special election in 2023, when Knodl easily beat Brandtjen in the GOP primary for his current Senate seat. Brandtjen, a fierce 2020 election denier who has been endorsed by Donald Trump, has felt the ire of Assembly Speaker Robin Vos in recent years. Assembly Republicans booted her from closed caucus meetings in November 2022.

In Assembly District 6, Reps. Peter Schmidt, R-Bonduel, and Elijah Behnke, R-Oconto, are set to square off, with the former’s hold on the seat in danger. Schmidt was censured and banned by the Republican Party of Shawano County in 2022 because of a criminal conviction, shortly after he had already won his first primary by only 63 votes. Behnke was drawn into the 4th District under new maps but decided to run in the 6th instead. He has the backing of the Shawano County GOP. This primary will test the power of a county Republican Party seeking to unseat a candidate it opposes.

In the 86th Assembly District, Reps. Donna Rozar, R-Marshfield, and John Spiros, R-Marshfield, find themselves at odds. The two have butted heads over who’s the true incumbent of the district, with a third candidate, Trine Spindler of Stratford, only making things more complicated.

Finally, in Milwaukee, will Democratic socialist Rep. Ryan Clancy be able to hold off a well-funded challenger with prominent backers? Clancy has been critical of the Biden administration’s response to the war in Gaza. Jarrod Anderson, meanwhile, says Milwaukee needs “Democratic unity,” not “headline-chasing.”

All in all, we’ll be keeping tabs on how many incumbents are effectively fired by their constituents on Tuesday — something that can be a telling signal for how voters are feeling about the status quo headed into November.

Who emerges in the 3rd Congressional District?

Finally, as we previously previewed, we’ll be watching to see which Democrat emerges in the 3rd Congressional District to take on Rep. Derrick Van Orden. The first-term congressman is the most vulnerable Republican in the Wisconsin delegation, and limited public polling shows a tight race. 

The Democratic primary will likely be won by either nonprofit founder and former political fundraiser Rebecca Cooke or state Rep. Katrina Shankland, D-Stevens Point — and the contest has turned negative in recent weeks.

Cooke, who is trying to portray herself as an everywoman by leaning hard on her background as the daughter of dairy farmers, has suggested that voters in the district are more interested in electing someone they can relate to than a “career politician,” a barb at Shankland, who has served in the Legislature since 2013.

Shankland, meanwhile, is running on her time in the Legislature. In July, Shankland targeted Cooke in an ad that asks viewers: “Would you hire a barber who’s never cut hair before? So why send someone to Congress who’s never held public office?” Cooke has not held an elected position.

Late last month, Cooke posted an update on her website calling for assistance from outside groups to spread her message, WPR reported. But she denounced an outside group that recently started spending to support Shankland.

“For Katrina Shankland it’s do as I say, not as I do: She says she opposes outside spending but benefits from it,” said Alex Obolensky, Cooke’s campaign manager.

For a district Democrats would love to win back in November, there doesn’t seem to be much unity right at the moment.

See you at the polls on Tuesday.

Forward is a look at the week in Wisconsin government and politics from the Wisconsin Watch statehouse team.

This article first appeared on Wisconsin Watch and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.